Reading constitutes a fundamental skill, with text comprehension as its ultimate goal. Among the critical components underlying reading comprehension is the ability to make inferences. This quantitative study, employing a quasi-experimental design, aimed to investigate potential differences in inference-making skill between the strong and weak 1^st and 2^nd cycle secondary school students. To this end, a sample of 80 male students in 4 groups (20 in each group, weak and strong groups at 1^st & 2^nd cycle secondary school levels) from public schools in Some'esarā city (in Guilān province) was selected using convenience sampling. The criterion for being weak or strong was their score on a test to determine their level of written text comprehension. All four groups completed an inference-making test, and their ability in terms of coherence and elaborative inferences was analyzed with two inferential tests: independent t-test and Mann-Whitney U. The results indicated that strong readers, in both levels, significantly outperformed their weak counterparts in both types of inferences. Additionally, strong 2^nd cycle students demonstrated significantly higher proficiency in elaborative inference-making, compared to strong 1^st cycle students, whereas no statistically significant difference was observed between these two groups in terms of coherence inference-making. Moreover, weak 2^nd cycle students significantly outperformed the weak 1^st cycle counterparts in terms of coherence inference-making, although no significant difference was found between the two weak groups in terms of elaborative inference-making. These findings contribute to the growing body of research on reading  comprehension development and offer practical implications for educators, curriculum designers, and policymakers.
 
Extended Abstract
1.Introduction
Reading comprehension, the ultimate goal of reading, is a dynamic process that involves not only decoding words and sentences but also constructing a coherent mental model of the text. A critical component of this model-building is inference-making, the cognitive process of connecting explicit textual information with prior knowledge to fill in implicit gaps (Butterfuss et al., 2020; Kispal, 2008). Proficient readers continuously generate inferences to achieve deep understanding. However, significant individual differences exist in this ability. While international research extensively explores inference-making, a notable gap exists in the Iranian national context, particularly concerning secondary school students. The consistently poor performance of Iranian students in international reading assessments (e.g., PIRLS) underscores the urgency of this investigation. This study, therefore, aimed to compare the coherent and elaborative inference skills of strong and weak comprehenders among Iranian junior and senior secondary school students.
2.Theoretical Framework
This study is grounded in construction-integration models of reading comprehension (e.g., Kintsch, 1998), which posit that understanding requires building both a text base (from explicit content) and a situational model (through inference). We focus on two primary inference types: coherent inferences (bridging explicit ideas within the text) and elaborative inferences (integrating text information with world knowledge) (Bayat & Çetinkaya, 2020; Cain & Oakhill, 1999). The ability to make these inferences depends on working memory capacity, vocabulary knowledge, and the strategic application of prior knowledge (Perfetti & Stafura, 2014). This framework guides the examination of how these cognitive skills manifest differently across comprehension proficiencies and educational levels.
3.Methodology
A quantitative, quasi-experimental design was employed. The participants were 80 male students from Some'e Sarā, Guilān province, Iran, divided into four groups: strong and weak comprehenders from both first cycle (9th grade) and second cycle (12th grade) secondary school levels. Participants were classified using a validated Persian Reading Comprehension Test (Ghavāmi Lāhij et al., 2018). The independent variables were comprehension level (strong/weak) and educational level (first & second cycle secondary school). The dependent variable was the score on a researcher-made inference-making test (Ghavāmi Lāhij & Dānāye Tous, 2022), which assessed coherent and elaborative inferences, respectively, through multiple-choice questions following four expository texts. Data were summarized using descriptive statistics and they were analyzed using inferential tests (Mann-Whitney U and Independent Samples t-test), with SPSS software.
4.Results & Discussion
Key Findings:

Within both educational levels, strong comprehenders significantly outperformed weak comprehenders in both coherent and elaborative inference-making (p < .05).
Between educational levels, strong comprehenders in second cycle secondary school showed no significant advantage in coherent inference over their first cycle counterparts (p > .05), but they were significantly better at elaborative inference (p < .05).
Weak comprehenders in second cycle secondary school performed significantly better than weak first cycle students in coherent inference (p < .05), but no significant difference was found for the elaborative inference (p > .05).

The superior performance of strong comprehenders across the board confirms that inference-making is a core differentiator of reading skill (Cain et al., 2001). The lack of growth in coherent inference among strong students across the educational levels suggests this skill stabilizes early and may not develop significantly without explicit instruction (Oakhill & Cain, 2012). In contrast, the development of elaborative inference in strong second cycle students highlights the role of accumulated knowledge and cognitive maturation (Sillagi et al., 2015). The progress in coherent inference among weak second cycle students may stem from increased reading exposure and practice with basic textual connections. However, their stagnation in elaborative inference points to a persistent deficit in accessing and integrating prior knowledge, a more complex skill requiring targeted pedagogical intervention (Bayat & Çetinkaya, 2020).
5.Conclusions & Suggestions
This study concludes that while foundational coherent inference skills may develop with general education and exposure, higher-order elaborative inference skills require more strategic cognitive resources and do not develop automatically. The significant proportion of weak comprehenders highlights a systemic challenge in Iranian Persian language education. The findings imply an urgent need to revise curricula and teaching methods to include explicit, direct instruction in inference-making strategies, particularly elaborative inference. Teachers should design activities that actively activate students' prior knowledge and teach them how to connect it to the text. For future research, longitudinal studies, intervention-based designs, and replications with female students and larger samples are recommended to generalize findings and develop effective instructional packages.
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